Uzbekistan's dairy ingredient market exhibits structural import dependence (approx. 18%), with 2024 milk production at approx. 11.6 million tonnes and dairy ingredient imports at approx. 42,000 tonnes. Russia and Belarus jointly supply over 65%. International GDT whole milk powder prices fluctuate in the $3,400-$3,600/tonne range, with CIF Uzbekistan premiums of about 10-15%.
Sources: FAO Dairy Market Review (December 2025), Global Dairy Trade Auction Report (June 2026), Uzbekistan State Statistics Committee (2025 Annual Report)
Uzbekistan's raw milk output in 2024 totaled approx. 11.6 million tonnes, up 3.2% YoY. However, the dairy processing industry's import demand for high-quality dairy ingredients (WMP, SMP, whey powder) remains strong, with a domestic supply gap of approx. 40,000-50,000 tonnes per year.
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Milk Output (10k tonnes) | 1124 | 1160 | ↑3.2% |
| Dairy Ingredient Imports (10k tonnes) | 3.9 | 4.2 | ↑7.7% |
| Domestic Dairy Consumption (10k tonnes) | 1080 | 1125 | ↑4.2% |
| Supply-Demand Gap (10k tonnes) | ~3.5 | ~4.5 | Widening |
Main consumption areas: Liquid milk processing (45%), yogurt & fermented milk (25%), cheese (12%), bakery & confectionery (10%), other (8%).
Sources: Uzbekistan State Statistics Committee (2024 Annual Report published March 2025), FAO STAT Database (queried May 2026)
China's dairy ingredient market was stable with slight weakness in H1 2026; ex-factory WMP averaged approx. CNY 28,500-30,500/tonne, with industry operating rates around 68-72%. China's direct dairy ingredient exports to Uzbekistan remain small but are gradually expanding through Belt and Road cooperation channels.
| Category | China Avg Price (CNY/tonne) | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|
| Whole Milk Powder | 29,500 | →Flat |
| Skim Milk Powder | 24,600 | ↓1.2% |
| Whey Powder | 9,200 | →Flat |
Sources: Zhuochuang Info Dairy Ingredients Weekly (4th week of June 2026), China Customs Import-Export Statistics (May 2026 data, carried forward)
CIF import prices for dairy ingredients in Uzbekistan are 10-15% above international benchmarks, mainly due to logistics costs and intermediary markups. Russia is the largest supplier (approx. 45% share), followed by Belarus (approx. 22%) and Kazakhstan (approx. 12%).
| Source Country | Import Share | WMP CIF (USD/tonne) |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | ~45% | 3,850-4,150 |
| Belarus | ~22% | 3,780-4,080 |
| Kazakhstan | ~12% | 3,700-3,950 |
| EU | ~8% | 3,950-4,300 |
Liquid milk consumption dominates in Uzbekistan. Dairy ingredients are mainly used for further processing (yogurt, cheese, ice cream, etc.), with industrial processing accounting for approx. 55% of the consumption structure.
Sources: Uzbekistan Customs Committee Trade Data (2025 Annual Report), EastFruit Market Analysis (February 2026)
Imported dairy ingredients in Uzbekistan are dominated by whole milk powder (approx. 43%) and butter/AMF (approx. 28%), with skim milk powder and whey powder accounting for approx. 17% and 12% respectively. WMP is primarily used for reconstituted milk and yogurt production, while butter serves the bakery and confectionery sectors.
| Segment | Annual Imports (tonnes) | Share | Main Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole Milk Powder (WMP) | ~18,000 | 43% | Reconstituted milk, yogurt |
| Butter/AMF | ~11,800 | 28% | Bakery, confectionery |
| Skim Milk Powder (SMP) | ~7,100 | 17% | Ice cream, dairy beverages |
| Whey Powder | ~5,000 | 12% | Bakery, feed |
Sources: Uzbekistan Customs Committee Classified Import Data (December 2025 summary), EastFruit (February 2026)
Supply-demand gaps persist for Uzbekistan's dairy finished products (yogurt, cheese, butter). In 2024, yogurt output was approx. 850,000 tonnes and cheese output approx. 62,000 tonnes, with imports still needed to supplement high-end market demand. Imported dairy ingredients are critical to sustaining processing capacity.
| Finished Product | Domestic Output (10k tonnes) | Consumption (10k tonnes) | Gap (10k tonnes) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yogurt/Fermented Milk | 85 | 92 | ~7 |
| Cheese | 6.2 | 7.8 | ~1.6 |
| Butter | 3.5 | 4.9 | ~1.4 |
Note: Finished product gaps are partly covered by imported finished goods and partly met through domestic processing of imported ingredients.
Sources: Uzbekistan State Statistics Committee Industry Report (March 2025), FAO Dairy Market Network (May 2026 data)
Uzbekistan's domestic raw milk procurement price is approx. 2,900-3,300 UZS/litre (equivalent to $0.25-$0.28/litre), below the international average. However, CIF prices for imported dairy ingredients exceed GDT benchmarks due to logistics and exchange rate factors, putting cost pressure on processing enterprises.
| Category | China EXW Price | Uzbekistan CIF | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole Milk Powder | CNY 29,500/tonne | $3,850-4,150/tonne | Premium ~12% |
| Skim Milk Powder | CNY 24,600/tonne | $3,050-3,350/tonne | Premium ~10% |
| Whey Powder | CNY 9,200/tonne | $1,250-1,450/tonne | Premium ~14% |
Cost transmission chain: GDT auction price → Exporting country FOB → Freight + insurance → Uzbekistan CIF → Import tariff (5-10%) → Wholesale distribution → Processing enterprises.
Sources: Zhuochuang Info (June 2026), GDT Auction Results (June 15, 2026 auction), Uzbekistan Customs Tariff Schedule (2025 edition)
Uzbekistan's GDP growth rate reached approx. 5.4% in 2025, with dairy-related import tariffs in the 5-10% range. The government is promoting dairy modernization policies, offering tariff concessions on imported processing equipment. China-Uzbekistan bilateral trade continues to grow, expanding dairy ingredient trade potential.
| Indicator | Value | Source/Date |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate | 5.4% (2025) | World Bank (April 2026) |
| USD/UZS Exchange Rate | 1 USD ≈ 12,760 UZS | Central Bank of Uzbekistan (June 2026) |
| Dairy Ingredient Import Tariff | 5%-10% | Uzbekistan Customs (2025 edition) |
| China-Uzbekistan Bilateral Trade | Approx. $10.5 billion (2025) | China Customs (January 2026) |
Incentive policies: Uzbekistan offers 2-3 year tax breaks for foreign-invested food processing enterprises, with duty-free import of production equipment.
Sources: World Bank Uzbekistan Economic Brief (April 2026), Central Bank of Uzbekistan (June 2026), China Customs
Geopolitically, the Russia-Ukraine situation continues to impact Black Sea logistics routes, potentially forcing Uzbekistan to seek alternative supply sources. On the opportunity side, agricultural cooperation under China's Belt and Road framework and the development of Central Asian logistics corridors are creating new channels for dairy ingredient trade.
Localization trend: The Uzbekistan government is encouraging expansion of domestic dairy ingredient production capacity, aiming to raise self-sufficiency above 85% by 2027, though import demand will persist in the near term.
Sources: EastFruit Central Asia Market Analysis (March 2026), China Ministry of Commerce BRI Progress Report (May 2026), World Bank Central Asia Economic Outlook (April 2026)