Uzbekistan's livestock industry continues to expand, with annual feed raw material demand reaching approximately 3.7 million tons and protein raw material import dependence at about 35%. Locally produced cottonseed meal serves as a critical pillar, but the import gap for soybeans and soybean meal continues to widen, with imports up roughly 12% year-on-year in 2024. Chinese soybean meal exports to Uzbekistan are on an upward trend, with Central Asian supply chain stability and exchange rate risks being the primary concerns.
Sources: World Bank Uzbekistan Agriculture Brief (March 2025); FAO Central Asia Feed Market Report (December 2024); China General Administration of Customs Export Statistics (Full Year 2024)
Uzbekistan's feed raw material supply and demand are in a tight balance. Locally produced cottonseed meal and wheat bran form the mainstay of supply, but the high-protein raw material deficit must be filled by imports. In 2024, domestic output was approximately 2.8 million tons, supplemented by around 0.9 million tons in imports, with total consumption at roughly 3.7 million tons—up around 7% year-on-year—driven primarily by livestock feed demand.
| Indicator | Volume (Million Tons) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic Feed Raw Material Output | ~2.8 | +5% |
| Imported Feed Raw Material Volume | ~0.9 | +12% |
| Total Consumption | ~3.7 | +7% |
| Of Which: Protein Raw Material Consumption | ~1.1 | +10% |
Sources: Uzbekistan Ministry of Agriculture Public Data (February 2025); FAO Food Outlook (November 2024); World Bank Database
China's feed raw material market operated smoothly overall in 2024, with soybean meal prices fluctuating between RMB 3,000–3,800/ton and easing towards year-end amid expectations of a bumper South American soybean harvest. Corn prices ranged between RMB 2,200–2,600/ton. Exports of feed additives and premixes continued to grow, with shipments to Central Asia up approximately 15% year-on-year.
Sources: 100ppi.com Feed Raw Materials Channel (December 2024); Sublime China Information Soybean Meal Annual Report (January 2025); China General Administration of Customs
Uzbekistan has relatively abundant local cottonseed meal supply, with annual output of approximately 0.7–0.85 million tons, forming the foundation of protein feed. However, soybeans and soybean meal are heavily import-dependent, with key supplier countries being Russia, Kazakhstan, and China. The CIF price of imported soybean meal carries a premium of roughly 8–15% over Chinese production-area prices, with freight and Central Asian logistics costs being the main markup factors.
Sources: Uzbekistan State Statistics Committee (March 2025); CAREC Agricultural Trade Report (October 2024)
Among imported feed raw material categories, protein feed accounts for the largest share at roughly 55%, followed by energy feed at approximately 30%, and minerals and additives at about 15%. Cottonseed meal represents the largest single local protein source, while soybean/soybean meal imports are growing the fastest, and corn imports continue to rise due to insufficient domestic output.
| Sub-Category | Annual Import Volume (Million Tons) | Demand Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Soybeans / Soybean Meal | ~0.25–0.30 | ▲ Growing |
| Corn | ~0.15–0.20 | ▲ Growing |
| Feed Additives | ~0.05–0.08 | ▲ Growing |
| Cottonseed Meal (Local) | ~0.70–0.85 | → Stable |
Sources: FAO STAT Database (2024); Uzbekistan Customs Import and Export Statistics (February 2025)
Uzbekistan's compound feed and concentrate feed output has been steadily increasing, with compound feed production reaching approximately 2 million tons and concentrate feed around 0.5 million tons in 2024. However, high-protein concentrate feed still faces a supply-demand gap of roughly 0.15–0.2 million tons, constrained mainly by dependence on imported high-quality protein raw materials.
Sources: Uzbekistan Feed Industry Association Report (January 2025); Alltech Global Feed Survey (2024 Edition)
The cost transmission chain from raw materials to feed is clear: Chinese production-area soybean meal (RMB 3,400–3,600/ton) sees its landed cost rise to approximately RMB 3,900–4,200/ton after overland transport to Uzbekistan. Local cottonseed meal enjoys a significant cost advantage at around RMB 1,800–2,200/ton, serving as the key anchor for controlling total feed cost. Logistics costs account for 12–18% of the imported raw material landed price.
| Product | China Production-Area Price (RMB/ton) | Uzbekistan CIF Price (RMB/ton) |
|---|---|---|
| Soybean Meal | 3,400–3,600 | 3,900–4,200 |
| Corn | 2,300–2,500 | 2,700–2,950 |
| Cottonseed Meal (Local) | — | 1,800–2,200 |
Sources: 100ppi.com (December 2024); Central Asia Logistics Cost Survey (Mysteel, March 2025); previous values cited, no latest monthly public data
Uzbekistan's macroeconomy remains stable, with GDP growth of approximately 5.5% in 2024 and agriculture accounting for about 24% of GDP. Bilateral trade between China and Uzbekistan has surpassed USD 12 billion. Import tariffs on feed raw materials are relatively low (mostly 0–5%). The Soum-to-USD exchange rate fluctuation is a key variable affecting import costs.
Sources: World Bank (January 2025); China General Administration of Customs; Central Bank of Uzbekistan Exchange Rate Bulletin (December 2024)
⚠ Risk Alert: Soum exchange rate volatility may significantly affect import costs; occasional disruptions in Central Asian geopolitics and transit transport pose supply chain risks; global soybean prices have upside potential due to climate impacts and major producer-country policies.
Opportunity Windows: The Uzbekistan government encourages livestock industry modernization, creating rigid growth in feed demand; China-Uzbekistan bilateral relations are strong, with Chinese feed raw material exports benefiting from tariff preferences; substantial import substitution and investment potential exist in local cottonseed meal deep processing and the high-end feed additive sector.
Sources: Presidential Decree of Uzbekistan (September 2024); ADB Central Asia Economic Outlook (April 2025); MOFCOM China-Uzbekistan Economic and Trade Cooperation Brief