Romania is a major grain producer and exporter in the Black Sea region, with total grain output of approximately 27.5 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 marketing year, maintaining strong wheat and corn exports. China's grain imports from Romania are limited in scale but show considerable growth potential. Black Sea geopolitical risks and EU agricultural policy changes are the main uncertainties. It is recommended to monitor opportunities for expanding the bilateral grain trade corridor between China and Romania.
Source: USDA FAS Grain Report, updated June 2026; European Commission Agricultural Outlook, May 2026
Romania's grain supply and demand is generally loose. 2025/2026 production is estimated at 27.5 million tonnes, domestic consumption at approximately 10.5 million tonnes, with export capacity in the 16.5–17.5 million tonne range. Wheat and corn account for 40% and 48% of total output respectively, serving as the core export-earning varieties.
| Indicator | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | 2025/2026E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production (10k t) | 2,620 | 2,680 | 2,750 |
| Domestic Consumption (10k t) | 1,020 | 1,040 | 1,050 |
| Exports (10k t) | 1,580 | 1,610 | 1,680 |
| Ending Stocks (10k t) | 380 | 410 | 430 |
Source: USDA FAS Romania Grain Update, June 2026; European Commission Agricultural Data, May 2026
China's grain market is well supplied. In H1 2026, spot wheat prices ranged from 2,750–3,050 RMB/tonne, while corn fluctuated between 2,350–2,580 RMB/tonne. Grain processing industry operating rates are approximately 68%–72%, with capacity utilization at moderate levels. Grain imports from Romania, though small, are showing an upward trend.
Source: 100ppi.com, Mysteel, Sublime China Information, June 2026; General Administration of Customs of China, June 2026
Romania's domestic grain market is operating steadily. In June 2026, milling wheat farm-gate prices were approximately €195–215/tonne, and corn approximately €175–190/tonne. As a net exporter, import dependency is very low (<3%), with main import sources being neighboring EU countries. Feed use accounts for approximately 58% of consumption, while food processing accounts for approximately 28%.
Source: Argus Media AgriMarkets, June 2026; National Institute of Statistics of Romania, May 2026
Romania's grain exports are dominated by wheat and corn, with barley as an important supplement. In 2025/2026, wheat exports are expected at 8.8 million tonnes, corn exports at approximately 7.2 million tonnes, and barley exports at approximately 0.55 million tonnes. Milling-grade wheat accounts for approximately 65% of wheat exports, and feed-grade approximately 35%.
| Product Segment | Export Volume (10k t) | FOB Reference (USD/t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | 570 | 245–265 | +3.5% |
| Feed Wheat | 310 | 218–238 | +2.8% |
| Corn | 720 | 210–230 | +5.1% |
| Barley | 55 | 195–215 | -1.2% |
Source: Argus Media Black Sea Grain, June 2026; USDA FAS, updated June 2026
Romania's wheat flour processing capacity is approximately 4.2 million tonnes/year. Actual processing volume in 2025/2026 is approximately 3.1 million tonnes, with capacity utilization at approximately 74%. Domestic flour consumption is stable at around 2.6 million tonnes, with exports of approximately 0.5 million tonnes, mainly to Middle Eastern and North African markets.
Source: Romanian Milling and Bakery Association, May 2026; European Commission Agricultural Report, April 2026
Fertilizer cost is a key intermediate input for Romanian grain cultivation. In June 2026, urea Black Sea FOB prices were approximately USD 380–410/tonne, and DAP approximately USD 520–550/tonne. China domestic ex-factory urea prices were approximately 2,150–2,350 RMB/tonne, with Romania's import indicative CIF equivalent at approximately USD 420–450/tonne.
| Product | China Ex-Factory | Black Sea FOB | Romania CIF Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | 2,150–2,350 RMB/t | 380–410 USD/t | 420–450 USD/t |
| DAP | 3,650–3,850 RMB/t | 520–550 USD/t | 560–590 USD/t |
| MOP | 2,550–2,750 RMB/t | 310–340 USD/t | 350–380 USD/t |
Source: Longzhong Info Fertilizer Data, June 2026; Argus Media Fertilizer, June 2026
Romania's GDP growth in 2025 was approximately 2.8%, with agriculture accounting for approximately 4.2% of GDP. Bilateral trade between China and Romania in 2025 totaled approximately €8.9 billion, of which agricultural trade accounted for approximately 6%. The RON/CNY exchange rate ranged approximately 1.58–1.62, with the EU Common Agricultural Policy continuing to influence subsidy allocation.
Source: National Institute of Statistics of Romania, May 2026; Ministry of Commerce of China, April 2026; World Bank, June 2026
Black Sea shipping safety remains the largest risk variable; the Russia-Ukraine situation may affect logistics efficiency at Romania's Port of Constanța. On the opportunity side, the construction of China's Belt and Road grain corridor provides policy support for bilateral grain trade, and Romania's need for domestic storage facility upgrades also presents investment opportunities for Chinese enterprises.
Source: FAO Global Food Security Report, June 2026; Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, May 2026